260627 Middle-east post 05

Today we still see Trump trying to win a war that looks more and more every day as if he’s losing. Prophecy demonstrates that it is the revived Roman empire that the coming antichrist leads. This is very unlikely to mean USA, so much so that at some stage USA is going to leave Israel on her own to fight against her enemies. Trump has already stated that he has told Israel that they should make peace in Lebanon and that he expects Israel to do as they are told. When Israel recently said that they had no choice but to retaliate after hezbollah had fired missiles at northern Israel, Trump said that this wasn’t good but no-one was hurt and so Israel should just be more patient. The Iran-USA peace agreement continues to remain on very shaky ground, with Iran choosing to set their own rules whenever they can, such as continuing to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz in spite of an alleged agreement to allow it to be open and free for 60 days. Trump said that peace in Lebanon was never part of the agreement yet Iran uses the fighting there to excuse their attacks. Iran is playing a game known in their area of the world as “hudna”: a strategic ceasefire for the purpose of regrouping and rebuilding their attack capabilities for future aggression. “It can be seen as a temporary pause in hostilities, sometimes allowing for regrouping before further conflict. In contemporary discussions, particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a hudna can be seen as a tactical maneuver. It is often viewed with skepticism, as it may provide an opportunity for one side to strengthen its position before resuming hostilities.” That is, they play the game that permits them to “negotiate” yet really buying time to permit them to be more prepared in the future. Iran is not negotiating for peace; they are playing the hudna game. Iranian warfare philosophy says that they only respect might and power; any efforts made to negotiate peace agreements are usually seen as weakness to be played. Thus it is clear that while Iran “negotiates”, they will be using those “negotiations” preparing for the next round of warfare.

It is also clear that Iran considers Trump to be weak. They are pushing the limits as much as they can, hitting out with seeming impunity as if to say: “What are you going to do about it?” Iran has picked up on Trump’s obvious reluctance to keep this war going for too long, and is using this to try to manipulate Trump’s responses. Trump often makes very aggressive statements and then holds out a carrot for Iran to avoid the aggression. This is likely to be seen by Iran as weakness, an inability to follow through with much of his rhetoric. (For this reason Trump is sometimes known as TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. Whether true or not, Iran is playing this as hard as they can.) Trump is facing problems at home with unpopularity building (even among some of his supporters) and some in the US government threatening to hold off funding. There are also strong hints that the upcoming Primaries may not be as supportive for Trump if he continues with this war for too long. Trump does not want the war to continue for much longer, and thus he puts pressure on Israel to not rock the boat too much in case the war flares up again. There are already cracks in the relationship between USA and Israel; this looks likely to cause a serious rift soon.